The Yorkshire Ranter

Now reporting that Bush might get one of the 4 Maine EVs. Most calls at the moment seem to be purely exit poll or hunch based. More exies, here. Just opened a Black Sheep Ale, and seen another chunk of calls. Nebraska, North and South Dakota, Texas, Kansas go Bush. Well, shock me. New York…

……for Kerry, 52%-48%. Figures based on an exit poll, here. Mind you, the BBC’s data doesn’t bear that out. New Hampshire looks like it’s going Kerry if you accept results from 5% of the state. Mind you, that’s what some of the other calls have been based on. The Washington Monthly is now agreeing. It…

Betting markets are responding to the zeitgeist. I don’t see these as a worthwhile political indicator (scroll down), but they are good at waving with the wind. Apparently Ladbrokes have swung Kerry from odds against to 4/11, Bush from 6/4 to 2/1. Kerry 56% on some internet markets. Good news – if you believe people…

First calls coming in. Safe Bush states going Bush (Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee. What a surprise). A string of safe Kerrys also dropping in on cue. Mind you, ElectoralVote.com’s poll that threw New Jersey to Bush has been shown up as a wild outlier. Some states called with 0% of results in – how’s that work?…

Zogby International pollsters call it Kerry 311, Bush 213. With a total of 14 Electoral College votes too close to call. Read it here, or save bandwidth and trust me. Meanwhile, Talking Points Memo is back on the chain gang after a “mystery server breakdown”. No mystery, I think, just a lot of blog, but…

BBC Radio News broadcast following Bush quote: “I’m confident we’re going to Kerry Ohio. I’m confident we’re gonna Kerry the whole nation!” You said it, Dubya. Great Freudian. Meanwhile, Laura Rozen has another bunch of exit polls as follows, plus some “unattributable” Democratic polls: Nationwide: 50-49 Ohio 52-48 Florida 52-48 Pennsylvania 60-40 New Hampshire 58-41…

The first exit poll leak has broken at the Daily Kos, and it looks good (showing a net gain of around 30 electoral college votes on the last prediction). AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH Kerry 45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57 Bush…

Though some people said this would be the Blog Election, it’s turning out to be more of a 404 File Not Found election as sites buckle under the weight of traffic. At the moment, for example, not much in the way of US blogs are moving at all – no TPM, no Kos, no Guerrilla,…

Note – I’m going to tag everything election-related as a MARGIN OF ERROR post in the next few days. The figures, anyway. Fox News (eh?) give Kerry 49%, Bush 44% in Florida. If I’m not very much mistaken that’s actually outside the Margin. Yes, MOE=+-3.7%. (Link) Fox’s final national has Kerry +2 and +5 among…

E-vote at Risk – Computerworld As I’m sure you’re all aware, electronic voting systems present us with complicated and desperately important technological and political challenges. But frankly, what’s the point of arguing about verification, paper trails, electronic audit trails, public key encryption and the like when “”Maryland refuses to put a firewall on servers that…