King’s College London’s terribly smart and not at all sinister Insurgency Research Group have some relevant facts about a controversy between Daniel Davies and I. Recap: Dan apparently believes that it’s better to let jihadis advertise on the Internet, on the principle that they will attract lots of idiots, self-dramatising teens, and committee fetishists, who…
Read More Human Capital Saving in a Terrorist CellNot at all sure what to make of this UN Expert Panel report on Somalia. Some things are clear enough, for example that Ethiopia is supporting the old not-government and Eritrea the Islamic Courts in order to piss off the Ethiopians. But what is all this James Bond stuff about Iranians trading arms for uranium?…
Read More The what and the whyI’m beginning to think that it’s possible to discern so many similarities between really stupid opinions on terrorism that we can call it a theory. Specifically, if you’re talking about state sponsorship, you’re probably wrong, unless overwhelming evidence contradicts this. As far as I can tell, the modern version of this theory originated in the…
Read More A unified theory of stupidity on terrorismAnd you thought we handed over in Maysan voluntarily. You poor fool! Comments Dan thinks that Blair will finally be done in by angry army wives after a disastrous overrun somewhere in Afghanistan or Iraq. It’s a testament to the strategic incoherence of the trip to Afghanistan that it’s now getting more dangerous at the…
Read More Big HoumousNow it’s all over, what was all the shooting about? To answer that question, we’d first need to know something of each side’s aims. Hezbollah’s were reasonably clear, at least as far as the decision to take the two soldiers prisoner went: put pressure on the Israelis to release their remaining Lebanese prisoners, and not…
Read More A war for neuroticsAfter this post, and its sequel here (shorter Washington Post: we asked Richard North what evidence he had for his manic conspiracy theory and he had none), it struck me to wonder why he’s doing this. After all, his stated mission is to discuss the European Constitution, although it would be more accurately described as…
Read More Two blogger career pathsJamie K thinks the UNTSO post was bombed to prevent them observing a possible Israeli flank movement from the northern tip of the country, around Kiryat Shmona, down the Litani valley to the sea, with hopes of cutting off the retreat, which means going further into Lebanon. He quotes me, in comments, suggesting that this…
Read More Right flankReally detailed reporting from the Jerusalem Post on the first phase of the invasion. Note especially this: On Thursday five Egoz soldiers were killed by an anti-tank missile in the village…”many of our tanks took hits, mainly from Sagger rockets; none of the tanks were destroyed but quite a few of our friends were wounded.”…
Read More Right on cueIt seems that, after a week’s bombing to get in the mood, the Israeli army is going back into southern Lebanon. What are they trying to achieve? A question that could have been asked all week, but one that gains force with this escalation. Everyone’s talking about either “clearing a one-mile strip” along the border…
Read More Another dip in the quagmire