This Chris Cook piece about campaigning strategy is good. Here’s something I noticed which he doesn’t call out specifically. The party leaders’ activities by ITV region are actually very similar. Going by Chris’s table, Theresa May has made 23 visits and Jeremy Corbyn 22. Both leaders have concentrated their operations on two regions, Greater London and the West Midlands. May visited Central 5 times, as did Corbyn. She appeared in London 5 times, while Corbyn did so 6 times. In total, Corbyn’s visits to these two regions represent half his total, while May’s represent 44% of hers. The distinction should not be treated as particularly important, as it’s accounted for by precisely two visits. I would cautiously support Cook’s contention that he’s trying to get on the regional news as often as possible with an enthusiastic turnout of activists by going to seats where there is a good membership base. This at least turns his meetings to some use. Alternatively he actually expects the Labour share of the vote to be up on last time – look at the concentration of visits around a 5% swing. That would be…brave?
Labour’s VI in opinion polls has gone up by 2-4% since the start of the campaign, and is now higher than Miliband’s vote share in 2015, let alone Brown’s in 2010. So assuming the Labour vote’s going to go up may be bold, but it’s not quixotic.
(off topic) ITV regions as regional authorities FTW. Not necessarily from the same era. Thames, Central, Southern, Westward, Border, Yorkshire, Anglia, Ulster, Granada, Tyne Tees
Am pretty sure I saw May’s convoy yesterday as I was driving through Oxford – big black Land Rover with blue lights flanked by two cars. She was going to Abingdon. Did not go well. I suspect the ‘letting people near her’ experiment will not be repeated.
Tories can’t cope with Abingdon? *Abingdon*?
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The graph should be updated to include UKIP voters mostly within the Tory voters, since what were marginals in 2015 aren’t necessarily marginals now.