Really important data point in the light of this post:
Yougov: 49% of UKIPPERs are 2010 Tories (15% LAB, 14% LD, 7% UKIP, 15% non voters/minor party) of whom a mere 16% are under 40. Interesting.
— James Smith (@thejimsmith) May 27, 2014
2010 Tory voters, 84% (84%!) over 40? That’s Group Three for you, the grumpy protectionists. And they make up 49 per cent of the party’s electorate. As a rough guess, I’d identify the 7% of the total who voted UKIP in 2010 as the total of Groups One and Two. 49:7, some ratio. Here’s your answer as to why UKIP voters don’t put the EU at the top of their priorities, and do support the NHS and the BBC, etc: they’re normal. Normal. They’re your dad. They’re arguably more representative of the nation than some clown who wants charter hospitals and Tesco elections with a view to a future career with an American thinktank. They are damning evidence of the creepy weirdness of the Coalition. That will be why trying to order people not to vote for supposed “fascists” isn’t working.
This also has the consequence that if the ‘kippers want to be an enduring political force, building up Lib-Dem style local authority bases supporting MPs, their platform will just have to evolve and get normal, as will the personalities. Successful local government is dependent, above all, on being as normal as fuck, getting your head down, and grafting hard. This is going to be difficult, because the EU-obsessives, Powellite screamers, and glibertarians have nowhere else to go that gives them any hope of real influence at all. Therefore they will fight for survival. Similarly, the 49 per centers and ex-Tory careerists can’t have their own independent party or their own careers in it if they don’t get their way, so they will fight. Popcorn!
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building up Lib-Dem style local authority bases supporting MPs
Do they really need to do this, though? They’ve got this far despite having only one person who’s safe to appear on TV and zero local presence in many parts of the country. For example, they were firmly barracked out of Scotland when they turned up. But they have billboards here, and media support, and the sort of people who comment in the Telegraph. We’ve been waiting for non-door-to-door internet politics to arrive for a while; maybe this is what it looks like?
Farage has said as much, that he wants to build up a local authority base, and in fact UKIP targeted key local authorities at this election.
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ping from Safari
That’s weird – I could have sworn it wasn’t letting me comment from Safari earlier.
Anyway, my Dad was Labour till the day he died (albeit with Blairite deviationist tendencies towards the end) so you’re not having that. But IKWYM.
Not sure about the 7% = Groups 1 + 2 theory, if only because you’re then stuck with 44% of the party to explain. Group 4?
About 15% ex-Labour, 14% ex-Lib Dems, 15% nonvoters or weirder than UKIP = 44%.
It’s probably my dad.
It’s a big leap from councils to MPs, even with hard graft, as the Greens can tell you. It’s made harder, in part, because big party HQs retain the option to drop in palatable candidates in places where the local elected politicians aren’t much cop. (Rotherham 2012, for example.)
As a subset of Group 3, the not very grumpy in fact quite happy tendency, who held his nose when voting UKIP. if they want to hold my vote they need to:
1. Follow through on Farage’s promise to stop being a 1 man band and appoint credible spokesmen and women for a wider portfolio. And yes I know that means developing grown up policies.
2. Start describing what Out really means. If it looks like “little England” I’m gone.
3. Stay well clear of Marine Le Pen and her fellow travelers throughout Europe.
4. Start behaving like a leader and not a popular cheeky chappie, but continue to talk to people like grown ups.
5. Stop referring to the “people’s army”.
Yes I am aware that once 1 and 2 happen the whole edifice is likely to crumble.
And if the other parties want to attract my vote have a good think about the second part of point 4.
So basically, if you hate UKIP so much, as your five points suggest, why the hell did you vote for them??!!!
I wasn’t going to because of their emphasis on immigration, but on Monday night I listened to a political podcast that had some Conservative and Labour activists and they had their had so far up their backsides that I changed my mind.
Until twats like these accept that wanting to leave the EU does not make us thick, ignorant fascists they won’t get my vote.
FWIW my desire to leave is for more globalisation not more protectionism and I don’t have a problem with immigration.
Group Three, economy-focused, is also the most likely to revert, with the exception of the women: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/29/ukip-voters-loyal-nigel-farage-2015-labour-tory
Someone wanted more about the campaign in Bradford: http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/the-northerner/2014/may/23/labour-gains-control-of-bradford-george-galloway-respect-fails